I’m not a gambler – but I understand there are two kinds of gamblers: the amateurs who go on their emotions and instincts AND the pros who go on facts.

Those looking for facts as a basis of their bet on the outcome of the “new” best-of-three final series at the Canadian Curling Trials will be hard-pressed to find a reference point in curling. Of course, there are historical records galore to look at this week – to make your bet before the games start.

But is there any set of facts anywhere that can help guide you after the first game has been played in that best-of-three final has been decided. What are the odds the Game #1 winner – will win the trip to the Olympics? Will they do it in two games or three?

Most curling fans will say there is no real reference point – no relevant example in the sport of curling.

NOT SO!! the Manitoba Men’s Championship British Consols final was a best-of-three playoff for 14 years between 1963 and 1976. So the question becomes – do patterns and results from that long ago have any relevance now. I won’t say they do or don’t – but I will say they are facts, perhaps the only example in the sport of curling.

Here are the facts:
EIGHT finals were won in two games while SIX finals required three games.

Of the SIX finals which went three games:
FIVE were won in three games with the Game ONE winner losing #2 and winning #3
Only ONE was won in three with the Game ONE winner losing both games #2 & #3

It is a pretty small sample size, but I don’t know of any other example of a best-of-three playoff in our sport.

Here are the results of those 14 British Consols finals.
1963 – Hersh Lerner beat Bob Picken in two games
1964 – Bruce Hudson beat Gary Ross in three games (Hudson won #1)
1965 – Terry Braunstein beat Bruce Hudson in two games
1966 – Hersh Lerner beat Bruce Hudson in two games
1967 – Bruce Hudson beat Gary Ross in two games
1968 – Burke Parker beat Ralph Wilson in two games
1969 – Bobby Robinson beat Paul Devlin in three games (Robinson won #1)
1970 – Don Duguid beat Bob Friesen in three games (Duguid won #1)
1971 – Don Duguid beat Larry Taylor in two games
1972 – Orest Meleschuk beat Gary Ross in two games
1973 – Danny Fink beat Clare DeBlonde in three games (DeBlonde won #1)
1974 – Don Barr beat Gary Ross in three games (Barr won #1)
1975 – Rod Hunter beat Barry Fry in three games (Hunter won #1)
1976 – Clare DeBlonde beat Terry Braunstein in two games

As for trying to predict who would be in the best-of-three final, history tells us that most of the teams in that list were beginning their great careers and no doubt most would have been picked to be among the favourites in that particular year. However, there are just enough names in the list to tell you “when they start even, anyone can win”. 1968, of course,is the best example of that when Parker and Wilson, two Dauphin area teams, played the final in Brandon while the high profile teams all watched.

What about picking the winner between the final two. Parker-Wilson was a coin-toss! Gary Ross may not have been highly regarded in 1964 but three more in the next ten years was no surprise. Picken was well regarded in ’63 so that year was probably a coin-toss final as well. In fact most were, although there were some clear favourites. Robinson over Devlin in 1969, Duguid over Friesen in 1970, and Duguid over Taylor in 1971 was probably the three year period in those 14, when most would have bet the winner in advance.

As for a long-shot bet to win, at the start of the 1968 event, both Parker and Wilson would have been called that. However, Barr over Ross in ’74 might best fit that description once the final two teams were decided.